Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list for October 30 – November 5

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list for October 30 – November 5

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The table below provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we publish both values in the table.

Note that the arrow direction gives us information about the large speculators’ actions (buying or selling) relative to the asset specified in the first column. For example, for CHF, the up arrow () indicates that COT net position indicator is rising, namely CHF is being bought, but not USDCHF.

Key topics

Trade list for the current week

AssetComments20.
10
27.
10
**E-Mini
S&P500 (ESZ17)
The trend is bullish, the correction came to an end last week, the impulse wave develops. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 25-26.
**Dollar Index (DXZ17)The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is upward now, the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity on the Daily timeframe will appear after a correction formation. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 19-20.
**EUR (E6Z17)The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday and the trend changed. The trend is bearish, the impulse wave develops, a pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.
**CHF (S6Z17)The trend is bullish (for USDCHF), the impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point on the Daily timeframe will appear after the correction formation.
*GBP (B6Z17)The market is in the triangle on the Daily timeframe. Before the fact of the nearest support or resistance levels breakout new medium-term positions look unattractive. Previously opened short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of October 25-26. At the same time large speculators go on selling franc, the probability of breaking through the triangle down is high.
**JPY (J6Z17)The Daily trend is bullish (for USDJPY), the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion and a new full-fledged correction formation. USDJPY long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 13-16.
**WTI (CLZ17)The Daily trend is bullish, the impulse wave develops. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 19-20.
**CAD (D6Z17)The Daily trend is bullish (for USDCAD), the impulse wave develops. USDCAD pullback buying opportunity will appear after a full-fledged correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDCAD long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 18-19.
**XAU (GCZ17)The Daily trend is bearish, the impulse wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the highs of October 13-17.
**XAG (SIZ17)The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, the trend changed. The trend is bearish, the impulse wave develops, a pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Large speculators go on buying and the professionals' opinion doesn't correspond to the market technical picture.
**AUD (A6Z17)The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is downward now, the impulse wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the highs of October 19-20. A pullback entry point will appear after a correction formation.
**NZD (N6Z17)The Daily trend is bearish, the impulse wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the highs of October 13-17.
****RUB
(R6Z17)
The Daily trend is bearish (for USDRUB), the market is in the correction. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion. USDRUB short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the highs of October 6-10.
The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****Excellent
***Good
**Ordinary
*Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

Trade list in a graphical format is available here.

If you want to get more information on the pullback trading tactics and other aspects of trading in the market, watch the «Horizontal levels in trading» video course.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ17)

The trend is bullish, the correction came to an end last week, the impulse wave develops. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 25-26.

COT net position indicator reversed, large speculators are selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis

E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ17). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is upward now, the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity on the Daily timeframe will appear after a correction formation.

Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 19-20. COT net position indicator increased but didn’t reverse and the major players’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday and the trend changed. The trend is bearish, the impulse wave develops, a pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Large speculators are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

The trend is bullish (for USDCHF), the impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point on the Daily timeframe will appear after the correction formation. Large speculators go on selling franc and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

The market is in the triangle on the Daily timeframe. Before the fact of the nearest support or resistance levels breakout new medium-term positions look unattractive.

Previously opened short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of October 25-26. At the same time large speculators go on selling franc and the probability of breaking through the triangle down is high.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

The Daily trend is bullish (for USDJPY), the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion and a new full-fledged correction formation. USDJPY long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 13-16.

Large speculators continue to maintain the trend and sell Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLZ17)

The Daily trend is bullish, the impulse wave develops. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 19-20. COT net position indicator reversed, large speculators are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis

WTI Crude Oil (CLZ17). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

The Daily trend is bullish (for USDCAD), the impulse wave develops. USDCAD pullback buying opportunity will appear after a full-fledged correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDCAD long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 18-19.

Large speculators are selling Canadian Dollar and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture now.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The Daily trend is bearish, the impulse wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the highs of October 13-17. Large speculators continue to maintain the trend and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis

Gold. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday and the trend changed. The trend is bearish, the impulse wave develops, a pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Large speculators go on buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture. Position size reduction when an entry point appears in the trend direction can be a good idea.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis

Silver. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is downward now, the impulse wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the highs of October 19-20. A pullback entry point will appear after a correction formation.

Large speculators go on selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

The Daily trend is bearish, the impulse wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the highs of October 13-17. Large speculators continue to maintain the trend and the major players’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

The Daily trend is bearish (for USDRUB), the market is in the correction. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion. USDRUB short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the highs of October 6-10. Large speculators continue to buy Rouble and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are USDRUB, EURJPY.

In the near future EURCHF, GBPJPY, EURAUD, CADCHF can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.

More information on the topic:

Good luck in trading!

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