Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 – 9

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 – 9

The actual financial market overview based on CFTC:
Financial markets weekly overview for April 16 – 20.

To improve your trading system with the help of COT commission reports, watch the online course «Trading with professionals: CFTC reports for private traders».

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Key topics

Trade list for the current week

AssetComments23.
02
2.
03
**E-Mini
S&P500 (ESH18)
The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, the trend is bearish now. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 26 - 27.
**Dollar Index (DXH18)The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday, the trend is bullish and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 15 - 16.
***EUR (E6H18)Euro remains in the bear trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 15 - 16.
**CHF (S6H18)The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday, the trend is bullish and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 22 - 23.
***GBP (B6H18)British pound remains in the bear trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 23 - 27.
**JPY (J6H18)USDJPY currency pair remains in the bear trend on the Daily timeframe and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDJPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 27 - 28.
**WTI (CLJ18)The medium-term trend remains upward and the correction wave develops on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of Februrary 21 - 22. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout selling opportunity will be formed.
**CAD (D6H18)USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward. Another high was broken last week. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 23 - 27.
***XAU (GCJ18)The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bearish. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 26 - 27.
***XAG (SIH18)The silver market remains in the medium-term bear trend and the correction wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level, the highs of February 26 - 27.
**AUD (A6H18)The Australian dollar remains in the bear trend. Another low was broken last week and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level, the highs of February 23 - 27.
**NZD (N6H18)NZDUSD currency pair remains in the medium-term uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of February 28 - March 1.
**RUB
(R6H18)
The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is bearish. USDRUB short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 21 - 22. A pullback selling opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout buying opportunity will be formed.
The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****Excellent
***Good
**Ordinary
*Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

If you want to get more information on the pullback trading tactics and other aspects of trading in the market, watch the «Horizontal levels in trading» video course.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESH18)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, the trend is bearish now. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 26 – 27.

COT indicator deceases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture now.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 - 9

E-Mini S&P500 (ESH18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday, the trend is bullish and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 15 – 16.

CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying dollar, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 - 9

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

Euro remains in the bear trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 15 – 16.

COT indicator reversed, large speculators began to buy Euro and the professionals’ opinion no longer corresponds to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 - 9

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday, the trend is bullish and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 22 – 23.

COT indicator increases, large speculators go on buying franc and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 - 9

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

British pound remains in the bear trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 23 – 27.

COT indicator increased, but didn’t reverse. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling Pound and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 - 9

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

USDJPY currency pair remains in the bear trend on the Daily timeframe and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDJPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 27 – 28.

COT indicator increases along with the market, large speculators are buying Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 - 9

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLJ18)

The medium-term trend remains upward and the correction wave develops on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of Februrary 21 – 22. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout selling opportunity will be formed.

COT net position indicator increased but didn’t reverse. Large speculators are selling oil. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 - 9

WTI Crude Oil (CLJ18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward. Another high was broken last week. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 23 – 27.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling the Canadian dollar and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 - 9

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bearish. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 26 – 27.

COT indicator decreased, but didn’t reverse. Large speculators are buying gold and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 - 9

Gold (GCJ18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The silver market remains in the medium-term bear trend and the correction wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level, the highs of February 26 – 27.

At the same time CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and hedgers are buying. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 - 9

Silver (SIK18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

The Australian dollar remains in the bear trend. Another low was broken last week and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level, the highs of February 23 – 27.

COT net position indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling, hedgers are buying. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 - 9

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

NZDUSD currency pair remains in the medium-term uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of February 28 – March 1.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture now and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 - 9

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is bearish. USDRUB short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 21 – 22. A pullback selling opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout buying opportunity will be formed.

COT indicator decreases and large speculators go on selling rouble and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 5 - 9

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are silver, dollar index.

In the near future GBPUSD, gold, EURUSD can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.

More information on the topic:

Good luck in trading!

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