Financial markets weekly overview for February 26 – March 4

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We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Trade list for the current week

Asset	Comments	16. 02	23. 02
**E-Mini S&P500 (ESH18)	The market remains in the medium-term bear trend and the correction develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of January 17 - 19. A pullback selling opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout buying opportunity will be formed.
**Dollar Index (DXH18)	The American dollar remains in the medium-term bear trend and the correction wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of Februrary 8 - 12. A pullback selling opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout buying opportunity will be formed.
*******EUR (E6H18)	Euro remains in the bear trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 15 - 16.
**CHF (S6H18)	USDCHF currency pair remains in the medium-term bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. USDCHF short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 21 - 22.
*******GBP (B6H18)	British pound remains in the bear trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 15 - 19.
**JPY (J6H18)	USDJPY currency pair remains in the bear trend on the Daily timeframe. The correction came to an end last week and the impulse wave develops. USDJPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of February 21 - 22.
**WTI (CLJ18)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, the trend is bullish now. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 21 - 22.
**CAD (D6H18)	USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward. Another high was broken last week. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 15 - 16.
*******XAU (GCJ18)	The gold market remains in the medium-term uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 21 - 22.
*******XAG (SIH18)	The silver market remains in the medium-term bear trend. The correction on the Daily timeframe came to an end last week. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level, the highs of February 15 - 16.
**AUD (A6H18)	The Australian dollar remains in the bear trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after its completion and the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level, the highs of February 15 - 16.
**NZD (N6H18)	NZDUSD currency pair remains in the medium-term uptrend and the correction wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of February 8 - 9.
**RUB (R6H18)	USDRUB currency pair remains in the medium-term uptrend. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 16 - 19. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout selling opportunity will be formed.

	The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****	Excellent
***	Good
**	Ordinary
*	Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
	The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
	large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
	large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
	the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
	the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

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E-Mini S&P500 (ESH18)

The market remains in the medium-term bear trend and the correction develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of January 17 – 19. A pullback selling opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout buying opportunity will be formed.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators began to sell and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture now.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESH18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The American dollar remains in the medium-term bear trend and the correction wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of Februrary 8 – 12. A pullback selling opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout buying opportunity will be formed.

CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying dollar, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

Euro remains in the bear trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 15 – 16.

COT indicator decreases along with the market, large speculators are selling Euro and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

USDCHF currency pair remains in the medium-term bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. USDCHF short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 21 – 22.

COT indicator increases, large speculators go on buying franc and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

British pound remains in the bear trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 15 – 19.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling Pound and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

USDJPY currency pair remains in the bear trend on the Daily timeframe. The correction came to an end last week and the impulse wave develops. USDJPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of February 21 – 22.

COT indicator reversed, large speculators began to buy Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLJ18)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, the trend is bullish now. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 21 – 22.

COT net position indicator reversed. Large speculators began to sell oil. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview for February 26 - March 4

WTI Crude Oil (CLJ18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward. Another high was broken last week. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 15 – 16.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling the Canadian dollar and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The gold market remains in the medium-term uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 21 – 22.

COT indicator reversed, large speculators began to buy gold and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture now.

Gold (GCJ18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The silver market remains in the medium-term bear trend. The correction on the Daily timeframe came to an end last week. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level, the highs of February 15 – 16.

At the same time CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and hedgers are buying. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.

Silver (SIH18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

The Australian dollar remains in the bear trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after its completion and the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level, the highs of February 15 – 16.

COT net position indicator increased, but didn’t reverse. Large speculators are selling, hedgers are buying. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

NZDUSD currency pair remains in the medium-term uptrend and the correction wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of February 8 – 9.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture now and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

USDRUB currency pair remains in the medium-term uptrend. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 16 – 19. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout selling opportunity will be formed.

COT indicator decreases and large speculators go on selling rouble and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instrument with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio is gold.

In the near future USDCAD, NZDUSD, USDRUB can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.