Financial markets weekly overview for March 26 – 30

Financial markets weekly overviewFinancial markets weekly overview

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The actual financial market overview based on CFTC:
COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for October 10 – 16.

To improve your trading system with the help of COT commission reports, watch the online course «Trading with professionals: CFTC reports for private traders».

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Trade list for the current week

Assets	Comments	16. 03	23 03
**E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18)	The market remains in the bear trend and the impulse wave develops. Pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 12 - 13.
**Dollar Index (DXH18)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bearish now. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 20 - 21.
**EUR (E6H18)	Euro remains in the bear trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 13 - 15.
**CHF (S6H18)	USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 13 - 15.
**GBP (B6H18)	GBPUSD currency pair remains in the uptrend. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 16 - 20.
*******JPY (J6H18)	USDJPY currency pair remains in the bear trend on the Daily timeframe and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDJPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 20 - 22.
*WTI (CLK18)	The medium-term trend remains upward. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 13 - 15.
*******CAD (D6H18)	USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 9 - 13.
**XAU (GCJ18)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bullish now. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 20 - 21.
*XAG (SIK18)	The silver market remains in the medium-term bear trend and the correction wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 9 - 15.
*AUD (A6H18)	The Australian Dollar remains in the medium-term bear trend. Another correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 13 - 15.
**NZD (N6H18)	The market remains in the medium-term bear trend. Another low was broken last week and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after its completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 13 - 15.
**RUB (R6H18)	USDRUB medium-term trend remains upward. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. USDRUB long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 9 - 13.

	The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****	Excellent
***	Good
**	Ordinary
*	Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
	The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
	large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
	large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
	the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
	the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

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E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18)

The market remains in the bear trend and the impulse wave develops. Pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 12 – 13.

COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview for March 26 - 30

E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bearish now. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 20 – 21.

CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying dollar, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

Euro remains in the bear trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 13 – 15.

COT indicator increases, large speculators go on buying Euro and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 13 – 15.

COT indicator increases, large speculators go on buying franc and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

GBPUSD currency pair remains in the uptrend. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 16 – 20.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling Pound and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

USDJPY currency pair remains in the bear trend on the Daily timeframe and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDJPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 20 – 22.

COT indicator increases along with the market, large speculators are buying Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLK18)

The medium-term trend remains upward. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 13 – 15.

COT net position indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling oil. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CLK18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 9 – 13.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling the Canadian dollar and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bullish now. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 20 – 21.

COT indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling gold and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Gold (GCJ18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The silver market remains in the medium-term bear trend and the correction wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 9 – 15.

COT indicator increases. At the same time CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying and hedgers are selling. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Silver (SIK18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

The Australian Dollar remains in the medium-term bear trend. Another correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 13 – 15.

COT net position indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling, hedgers are buying. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

The market remains in the medium-term bear trend. Another low was broken last week and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after its completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 13 – 15.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

USDRUB medium-term trend remains upward. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. USDRUB long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 9 – 13.

COT indicator increases and large speculators are buying rouble and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are USDCHF, USDCAD, silver.

In the near future NZDUSD, USDRUB can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.