Financial markets weekly overview for March 19 – 23

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We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Trade list for the current week

Assets	Comments	09. 03	16. 03
*E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18)	The market remains in the bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 12 - 13.
*******Dollar Index (DXH18)	The market remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 13 - 14.
**EUR (E6H18)	Euro remains in the bear trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 13 - 15.
*******CHF (S6H18)	USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 13 - 15.
**GBP (B6H18)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bullish now and the correction wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after its completion. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 8 - 12.
*******JPY (J6H18)	USDJPY currency pair remains in the bear trend on the Daily timeframe and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDJPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 12 - 14.
*WTI (CLK18)	The medium-term trend remains upward. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 13 - 15.
*******CAD (D6H18)	USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 9 - 13.
*XAU (GCJ18)	The market is in the downtrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 13 - 15.
*XAG (SIK18)	The silver market remains in the medium-term bear trend and the impulse wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 9 - 15.
*AUD (A6H18)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bearish now. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 13 - 15.
**NZD (N6H18)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bearish now. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 13 - 15.
**RUB (R6H18)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the USDRUB trend is bullish now. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDRUB long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 9 - 13.

	The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****	Excellent
***	Good
**	Ordinary
*	Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
	The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
	large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
	large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
	the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
	the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

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E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18)

The market remains in the bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 12 – 13.

COT indicator decreased but didn’t reverse. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The market remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 13 – 14.

CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying dollar, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

Euro remains in the bear trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 13 – 15.

COT indicator increases, large speculators go on buying Euro and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 13 – 15.

COT indicator increases, large speculators go on buying franc and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bullish now and the correction wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 8 – 12.

COT indicator increased but didn’t reverse. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling Pound and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

USDJPY currency pair remains in the bear trend on the Daily timeframe and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDJPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 12 – 14.

COT indicator increases along with the market, large speculators are buying Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLK18)

The medium-term trend remains upward. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 13 – 15.

COT net position indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling oil. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CLK18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 9 – 13.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling the Canadian dollar and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The market is in the downtrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 13 – 15.

COT indicator reversed. Large speculators began to sell gold and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.

Gold (GCJ18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The silver market remains in the medium-term bear trend and the impulse wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 9 – 15.

COT indicator decreased but didn’t reverse. At the same time CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying and hedgers are selling. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Silver (SIK18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bearish now. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 13 – 15.

COT net position indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling, hedgers are buying. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the USDRUB trend is bullish now. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDRUB long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 9 – 13.

COT indicator increases and large speculators are buying rouble and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are GBPUSD, oil.

In the near future USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.