Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list for September 4 — 10

Финансовая аналитика. Еженедельный обзор финансовых рынков. Обзор отчетов СОТ и CFTC.

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The table below provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we publish both values in the table.

Note that the arrow direction gives us information about the large speculators’ actions (buying or selling) relative to the asset specified in the first column. For example, for CHF, the up arrow () indicates that COT net position indicator is rising, namely CHF is being bought, but not USDCHF.

Key topics

Trade list for the current week

AssetComment25.
08
01.
09
**E-Mini
S&P500 (ESU17)
The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday. The trend is bullish and the impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.
**Dollar Index (DXU17)The trend is bearish, the market is in the correction. Probably, the correction on the Daily timeframe will come to an end this week and selling opportunity will be formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level of the Daily timeframe, the highs of August 15-18.
***EUR (E6U17)The trend is bullish. The correction will come to an end this week or the Daily trend will reverse. Anyway, this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading. Bullish positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level of the Daily timeframe, the lows of August 15-18.
***CHF (S6U17)The trend is bearish (for USDCHF), the market is around the nearest resistance level, the highs of August 22-23. A pullback selling opportunity from this level with a potentially promising risk-reward ratio may be formed in the near future, or the level will be broken and a breakout entry point will appear.
**GBP (B6U17)The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday. The trend is bullish and the impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.
**JPY (J6U17)The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday (USDJPY). The trend is bullish and the impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe.
***WTI (CLV17)The support level on the Daily timeframe was broken on Monday. The market broke through the triangle formed earlier in the direction of professional participants opinion. The trend is bearish. The correction can come to an end this week. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level of the Daily timeframe, the highs of August 18-21.
**CAD (D6U17)The Daily trend is bearish (for USDCAD). The correction came to an end last week and another impulse wave is developing now. A pullback entry point will appear after its completion and new correction formation on the Daily timeframe.
**XAU (GCZ17)The resistance level on the Daily timeframe was broken on Monday, the market broke through the triangle formed earlier in the direction that corresponds to the opinion of large speculators and hedgers. The trend is bullish and the active impulse wave is developing. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level of the Daily timeframe, the lows of August 29-31.
**XAG (SIZ17)The resistance level on the Daily timeframe was broken on Monday, the market broke through the triangle formed earlier in the direction that corresponds to the opinion of large speculators and hedgers. The trend is bullish and the active impulse wave is developing. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level of the Daily timeframe, the lows of August 29-31.
*AUD (A6U17)The market is in the flat on the Daily timeframe. Before the fact of the nearest support and resistance levels breakout, new medium-term positions look unattractive.
***NZD (N6U17)The trend is bearish. Another impulse wave is developing now. A pullback selling opportunity will occur after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.
**RUB
(R6U17)
The trend is bearish (for USDRUB). The market is actively moving. Noteworthy entry points are formed on the timeframes under Daily. Medium-term short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level of the Daily timeframe, the highs of August 23-25.
The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****Excellent
***Good
**Ordinary
*Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

If you want to get more information on the pullback trading tactics and other aspects of trading in the market, watch the «Horizontal levels in trading» video course.

Euro (EURUSD)

Euro remains in the bullish trend, the market is in the correction. The correction will most likely come to an end this week and a pullback signal will appear or the trend on the Daily timeframe will reverse. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading. Bullish positions will remain relevant as long as the market remains above the support level of the Daily timeframe, the lows of August 15-18.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list for September 4 — 10

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

COT net position indicator decreases, the general direction of its movement does not correspond to the technical condition of the market. This suggests that the probability of buying opportunities success is below the average and the position size reduction in case of signals occurrence in the direction of the trend may be a good idea

Swiss franc (USDCHF)

USDCHF remains in the mid-term downtrend, a correction on the Daily timeframe is coming to an end. The market is around the nearest resistance level, the highs of August 22-23.

A pullback selling opportunity from this level with a potentially low risk-reward ratio may be generated in the near future, or the level will be broken and a breakout entry point will appear. As with EURUSD, this asset may be interesting during the current trading week. Below is a chart of CHFUSD, which is the mirror image of USDCHF.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list for September 4 — 10

USDCHF. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

The trend direction does not correspond to the opinion of professionals, large speculators are selling franc. Short positions will remain relevant as long as the price is below the resistance level of the Daily timeframe, the highs of August 22-23.

Gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD)

The resistance level on the Daily timeframe was broken on Monday, the gold and silver markets broke through the triangles formed earlier in the direction that corresponds to the opinion of large speculators and hedgers. The Daily trend is bullish, an active impulse wave is developing. A pullback entry point will appear after the formation of a full-fledged correction on the Daily timeframe.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list for September 4 — 10

Gold. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Large speculators continue to buy, hedgers sell, thereby supporting the trend on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant as long as the market is above the support level of the Daily timeframe, the lows of August 29-31.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list for September 4 — 10

Silver. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLV17)

The support level on the Daily timeframe was broken on Monday. The market broke through the triangle formed earlier in the direction of professional participants’ trades, the trend is bearish now. The correction can come to an end this week. The higher this happens, the more attractive risk-reward ratio will be in case of pullback signal occurrence.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list for September 4 — 10

WTI Crude Oil. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

The trend direction continues to be combined with the opinion of professionals, COT net position indicator decreases, large speculators are selling. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level of the Daily timeframe, the highs of August 18-21.

New Zealand dollar (NZDUSD)

The New Zealand dollar remains in the medium-term bearish trend. Another correction came to an end last week, a new impulse wave is developing. The nearest mid-term pullback selling opportunity may appear this week.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list for September 4 — 10

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

COT net position indicator continues to decline, large speculators are selling. The Daily trend direction coincides with the opinion of large speculators and hedgers. That increases the probability of medium-term bear signals success. The nearest target is Thursday’s minimums. In case of the correction continuation from current prices, a new support level of the Daily timeframe will be formed around these marks. If the market closes above the nearest resistance level, that is the highs of August 28-30, short positions will no longer be relevant.

Conclusions

September is one of the most active trading periods of the year when strong price movements take place. For this reason, almost all assets can be interesting on timeframes under Daily. In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are the oil market, USDCHF, EURUSD, EURAUD.

NZDUSD, E-Mini S&P500 are less interesting, but in the near future they can also become noteworthy depending on the depth of the market correction.

After breaking through a flat AUDUSD may be interesting (due to the large speculators active buying, the market is likely to break through the flat up).

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.

Good luck in trading!

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