Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list for November 14 – 19

1697

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The table below provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we publish both values in the table.

Note that the arrow direction gives us information about the large speculators’ actions (buying or selling) relative to the asset specified in the first column. For example, for CHF, the up arrow () indicates that COT net position indicator is rising, namely CHF is being bought, but not USDCHF.

Trade list for the current week

Asset	Comments	3. 11	13. 11
**E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ17)	The trend is bullish, the market is around the last broken level and it is in the correction. A pullback buying opportunity on the Daily timeframe will appear after the correction completion.
*******Dollar Index (DXZ17)	The Daily trend is bullish, at the same time the market is around the support level on the Daily timeframe. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout selling opportunity will be formed. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading.
*******EUR (E6Z17)	At the time of writing, the market is above the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 2-3. If the bullish candle is closed above these marks, the medium-term trend will turn into the bullish one, a breakout signal will be formed. In this case the next target will be around the price mark of 1.185.
*******CHF (S6Z17)	The trend is bullish (for USDCHF), at the same time the market is around the support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 9-10. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a USDCHF breakout selling opportunity will be formed. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading.
*GBP (B6Z17)	The market is in the triangle on the Daily timeframe. Before the fact of the nearest support or resistance levels breakout new medium-term positions look unattractive. Previously opened bearish positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 9-13.
**JPY (J6Z17)	The Daily trend is bullish (for USDJPY). USDJPY long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 8-10.
**WTI (CLZ17)	The Daily trend is bullish, the correction develos. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 19-20.
**CAD (D6Z17)	The trend is bullish (for USDCAD), the impulse wave develops. USDCAD long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 9 - 13.
*XAU (GCZ17)	The gold market is in the large triangle on the Daily timeframe. Before the fact of the nearest support or resistance levels breakout new medium-term positions look unattractive. Previously opened bearish positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 6-8.
*XAG (SIZ17)	The silver market is in the large triangle on the Daily timeframe. Before the fact of the nearest support or resistance levels breakout new medium-term positions look unattractive. Previously opened bearish positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 6-8.
**AUD (A6Z17)	The market remains in downtrend, the impulse wave develops on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of November 8-10. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.
**NZD (N6Z17)	The Daily trend is bearish, the impulse wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of November 8-10.
**RUB (R6Z17)	USDRUB currency pair remains in the medium-term uptrend, another impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.

	The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****	Excellent
***	Good
**	Ordinary
*	Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
	The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
	large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
	large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
	the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
	the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

Trade list in a graphical format is available here.

If you want to get more information on the pullback trading tactics and other aspects of trading in the market, watch the «Horizontal levels in trading» video course.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ17)

The trend is bullish, the market is around the last broken level and it is in the correction. A pullback buying opportunity on the Daily timeframe will appear after the correction completion.

COT net position indicator decreased. Major players’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Financial market analytics. COT reports analysis

E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ17). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The Daily trend is bullish, at the same time the market is around the support level on the Daily timeframe. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout selling opportunity will be formed. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading.

Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 31 – November 3. COT net position indicator didn’t reverse and large speculators continue to sell.

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

At the time of writing, the market is above the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 2-3. If the bullish candle is closed above these marks, the medium-term trend will turn into the bullish one, a breakout signal will be formed. In this case the next target will be around the price mark of 1.185.

COT net position indicator reversed and large speculators are buying.

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

The trend is bullish (for USDCHF), at the same time the market is around the support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 9-10. A pullback buying opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a USDCHF breakout selling opportunity will be formed. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading.

CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling franc and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

The market is in the triangle on the Daily timeframe. Before the fact of the nearest support or resistance levels breakout new medium-term positions look unattractive. Previously opened bearish positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 9-13. At the same time large speculators go on selling Pound and the probability of breaking through the triangle down is high.

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

The Daily trend is bullish (for USDJPY). USDJPY long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 8-10.

Large speculators continue to maintain the trend and sell Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator..

WTI Crude Oil (CLZ17)

The Daily trend is bullish, the correction develops. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of October 19-20. COT net position indicator continues to increase, large speculators are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CLZ17). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

The trend is bullish (for USDCAD), the impulse wave develops. USDCAD long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 9 – 13.

Large speculators are selling Canadian Dollar and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the current market technical picture.

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The gold market is in the large triangle on the Daily timeframe. Before the fact of the nearest support or resistance levels breakout new medium-term positions look unattractive. Previously opened bearish positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 8-10. At the same time COT net position indicator reversed, large speculators are buying and the probability of breaking through the triangle up is high.

Gold. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The silver market is in the large triangle on the Daily timeframe. Before the fact of the nearest support or resistance levels breakout new medium-term positions look unattractive. Previously opened bearish positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 6-8. At the same time COT net position indicator reversed, large speculators are buying and the probability of breaking through the triangle up is high.

Silver. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

The market remains in downtrend, the impulse wave develops on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of November 8-10. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.

Large speculators go on selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

The Daily trend is bearish, the impulse wave develops. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of November 8-10. Large speculators continue to maintain the trend and major players’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

USDRUB currency pair remains in the medium-term uptrend, another impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.

Large speculators continue to buy Rouble and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture.

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are EURCAD, NZDCHF, GBPNZD.

In the near future USDCHF, EURUSD, Dollar Index can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.