COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for July 25 – 31

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We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to have the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Trade list for the current week

Assets	Comments	18. 07	22. 07
**E-Mini S&P500 (ESU22)	The market remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of July 12 - 15.
*******Dollar Index (DXU22)	The market remains in the downtrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of July 11 - 18.
**EUR (E6U22)	EURUSD currency pair remains in the bullish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (EURUSD) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of July 14 - 18.
**CHF (S6U22)	USDCHF currency pair remains in the downtrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions (USDCHF) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of July 14 - 15.
*******GBP (B6U22)	GBPUSD currency pair remains in the bearish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions (GBPUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of July 7 - 11.
**JPY (J6U22)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (USDJPY) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of July 19 - 21.
*******WTI (CLU22)	The market remains in the downtrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of July 18 - 21.
*******CAD (D6U22)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bearish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (USDCAD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of July 14 - 18.
**XAU (GCQ22)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of July 20 - 22.
*******XAG (SIU22)	The market remains in the bearish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of July 15 - 22.
*******AUD (A6U22)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions (AUDUSD) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of July 11 - 18.
*******NZD (N6U22)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions (NZDUSD) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of July 11 - 18.
*******RUB (R6U22)	USDRUB currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (USDRUB) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of July 13 - 16.

	The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****	Excellent
***	Good
**	Ordinary
*	Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
	The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
	large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
	large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
	the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
	the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

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E-Mini S&P500 (ESU22)

The market remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of July 12 – 15.

COT indicator increased but didn’t reverse. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESU22). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator

Dollar Index (DXY)

The market remains in the downtrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of July 11 – 18.

COT indicator increased but didn’t reverse. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling the dollar, hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

EURUSD currency pair remains in the bullish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (EURUSD) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of July 14 – 18.

COT indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling Euro and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

USDCHF currency pair remains in the downtrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions (USDCHF) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of July 14 – 15.

COT indicator reversed. Large speculators are selling franc and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

GBPUSD currency pair remains in the bearish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions (GBPUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of July 7 – 11.

COT indicator increased but didn’t reverse. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling Pound and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (USDJPY) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of July 19 – 21.

COT indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling Yen and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLU22)

COT net position indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling oil. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CLQ22). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bearish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (USDCAD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of July 14 – 18.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying the Canadian dollar and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of July 20 – 22.

COT indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling gold and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Gold (GCQ22). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The market remains in the bearish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of July 15 – 22.

COT indicator decreases. At the same time, CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Silver (SIU22). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions (AUDUSD) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of July 11 – 18.

COT net position indicator decreased but didn’t reverse. Large speculators are buying and hedgers are selling. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions (NZDUSD) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of July 11 – 18.

COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian Rouble (USDRUB)

USDRUB currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (USDRUB) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of July 13 – 16.

COT indicator for USDRUB remains unchanged since mid-March. With this in mind, trading decisions should be made only based on technical analysis.

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are WTI Crude Oil, E-Mini S&P500, EURUSD, GBPUSD and silver.

In the near future, AUDUSD, USDCAD and NZDUSD can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.