Financial markets weekly overview for May 14 – 18

2036

To improve your trading system with the help of COT commission reports, watch the online course «Trading with professionals: CFTC reports for private traders».

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Trade list for the current week

Assets	Comments	4. 05	11. 05
**E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18)	The market remains in the uptrend. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 3 - 4.
*******Dollar Index (DXM18)	The market remains in the uptrend. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the corection wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 3 - 7.
**EUR (E6M18)	The market remains in the downtrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 16 - 19.
**CHF (S6M18)	USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 16 - 17.
**GBP (B6M18)	GBPUSD currency pair remains in the downtrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 16 - 18.
*******JPY (J6M18)	USDJPY currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 7 - 9.
*WTI (CLM18)	The medium-term trend remains upward and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 1 - 3.
*******CAD (D6M18)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, USDCAD trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 8 - 9.
**XAU (GCM18)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, the trend is bullish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 9 - 10.
**XAG (SIN18)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 8 - 10.
*******AUD (A6M18)	AUDUSD currency pair remains in the bear trend. Another low was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 3 - 7.
*******NZD (N6M18)	NZDUSD currency pair remains in the downtrend. Another low was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 3 - 7.
**RUB (R6M18)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, USDRUB trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 7 - 10.

	The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****	Excellent
***	Good
**	Ordinary
*	Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
	The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
	large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
	large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
	the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
	the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

If you want to get more information on the pullback trading tactics and other aspects of trading in the market, watch the «Horizontal levels in trading» video course.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18)

The market remains in the uptrend. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 3 – 4.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators began to sell and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The market remains in the uptrend. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the corection wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 3 – 7.

COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying dollar, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

The market remains in the downtrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 16 – 19.

COT indicator decreases. Large speculators go on selling Euro and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 16 – 17.

COT indicator decreases, large speculators are selling franc and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

GBPUSD currency pair remains in the downtrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 16 – 18.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling Pound and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

USDJPY currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 7 – 9.

COT indicator decreases, large speculators are selling Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLM18)

The medium-term trend remains upward and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 1 – 3.

COT net position indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling oil. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CLM18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, USDCAD trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 8 – 9.

COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying the Canadian dollar and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, the trend is bullish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 9 – 10.

COT indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling gold and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Gold (GCM18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 8 – 10.

COT indicator increased, but didn’t reverse. At the same time CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Silver (SIN18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

AUDUSD currency pair remains in the bear trend. Another low was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 3 – 7.

COT net position indicator decreases along with the market. Large speculators are selling, hedgers are buying. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

NZDUSD currency pair remains in the downtrend. Another low was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 3 – 7.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, USDRUB trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 7 – 10.

COT indicator decreases, large speculators are selling rouble and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction.

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are dollar index, gold, silver, USDCAD and AUDUSD.

In the near future USDJPY, NZDUSD and USDRUB can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.