Financial markets weekly overview for April 16 – 20
We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.
The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.
If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.
Key topics
- Trade list for the current week
- E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18)
- Dollar Index (DXY)
- Euro (EURUSD)
- Swiss Franc (USDCHF)
- British Pound (GBPUSD)
- Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
- WTI Crude Oil (CLK18)
- Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
- Gold (XAUUSD)
- Silver(XAGUSD)
- Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
- New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)
- Russian rouble (USDRUB)
- Conclusions
Trade list for the current week
| Assets | Comments | 6. 04 | 13. 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| **E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18) | The market remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 6 - 10. | ||
| *Dollar Index (DXH18) | The market remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 11 - 12. | ||
| **EUR (E6H18) | The market remains in the downtrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 11 - 12. | ||
| ***CHF (S6H18) | USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 10 - 11. | ||
| **GBP (B6H18) | The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 5 - 6. | ||
| **JPY (J6H18) | USDJPY currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 9 - 12. | ||
| **WTI (CLK18) | The medium-term trend remains upward, another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 6 - 10. | ||
| **CAD (D6H18) | USDCAD medium-term trend remains bearish and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 2 - 3. | ||
| ***XAU (GCM18) | The market remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 5 - 6. | ||
| *XAG (SIK18) | The silver market is in the flat. Before the fact of the nearest support or resistance level breakout new medium-term positions look unattractive. | ||
| *AUD (A6H18) | The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 9 - 10. | ||
| **NZD (N6H18) | The medium-term trend remains upward, another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 6 - 10. | ||
| ***RUB (R6H18) | USDRUB medium-term trend remains upward, another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDRUB long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 30 - April 2. |
| The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors: | |
| **** | Excellent |
| *** | Good |
| ** | Ordinary |
| * | Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.) |
| The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are: | |
| large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column | |
| large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column | |
| the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators | |
| the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators |
If you want to get more information on the pullback trading tactics and other aspects of trading in the market, watch the «Horizontal levels in trading» video course.
E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18)
The market remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 6 – 10.
COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.
E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Dollar Index (DXY)
The market remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 11 – 12.
COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling dollar, hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.
Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Euro (EURUSD)
The market remains in the downtrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 11 – 12.
COT indicator reversed. Large speculators began to buy Euro and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.
EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Swiss Franc (USDCHF)
USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 10 – 11.
COT indicator decreases, large speculators are selling franc and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.
CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
British Pound (GBPUSD)
The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 5 – 6.
COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying Pound and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.
GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
USDJPY currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 9 – 12.
COT indicator increases, large speculators are buying Yen and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.
JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
WTI Crude Oil (CLK18)
The medium-term trend remains upward, another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 6 – 10.
COT net position indicator increased, but didn’t reverse. Large speculators are selling oil. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.
WTI Crude Oil (CLK18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
USDCAD medium-term trend remains bearish and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 2 – 3.
COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling the Canadian dollar and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.
CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Gold (XAUUSD)
The market remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 5 – 6.
COT indicator reversed. Large speculators began to sell gold and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.
Gold (GCM18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Silver (XAGUSD)
The silver market is in the flat. Before the fact of the nearest support or resistance level breakout new medium-term positions look unattractive.
COT indicator increased, but didn’t reverse. At the same time CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and hedgers are buying.
Silver (SIK18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 9 – 10.
COT net position indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling, hedgers are buying. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.
AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)
The medium-term trend remains upward, another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 6 – 10.
COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.
NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Russian rouble (USDRUB)
USDRUB medium-term trend remains upward, another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDRUB long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 30 – April 2.
COT indicator reversed, large speculators are selling rouble and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.
RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.
Conclusions
In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are EURUSD, gold.
In the near future AUDUSD, USDRUB can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.
Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.
More information on the topic:
- The role of support and resistance levels in the trading plan
- Trading tactics. Breakout trading and pullback trading
- How to use CFTC reports in trading. General concepts
- How to use CFTC reports in trading. The logic of large speculators
Good luck in trading!