Financial markets weekly overview for October 1 – 5

1304

The actual financial market overview based on CFTC:
COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for October 10 – 16.

To improve your trading system with the help of COT commission reports, watch the online course «Trading with professionals: CFTC reports for private traders».

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Trade list for the current week

Assets	Comments	21. 09	28. 09
*******E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ18)	The market remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of September 17 - 18.
*******Dollar Index (DXZ18)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday. The trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of September 20 - 26.
*******EUR (E6Z18)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday. The trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of September 20 - 27.
**CHF (S6Z18)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday. The trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions (USDCHF) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of September 20 - 25.
*******GBP (B6Z18)	GBPUSD currency pair remains in the downtrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of September 25 - 27.
*******JPY (J6Z18)	USDJPY currency pair remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions (USDJPY) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of September 6 - 10.
*******WTI (CLX18)	The market remains in the uptrend. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of September 26 - 27.
*******CAD (D6Z18)	USDCAD currency pair remains in the downtrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of September 27 - 28.
*******XAU (GCZ18)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday. The trend is bearish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of September 20 - 21.
*******XAG (SIZ18)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday. The trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of September 26 - 28.
*******AUD (A6Z18)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday. The trend is bearish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of September 26 - 27.
*******NZD (N6Z18)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday. The trend is bearish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of September 26 - 27.
**RUB (R6Z18)	USDRUB currency pair remains in the bear trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of September 10 - 12.

	The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****	Excellent
***	Good
**	Ordinary
*	Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
	The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
	large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
	large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
	the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
	the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

If you want to get more information on the pullback trading tactics and other aspects of trading in the market, watch the «Horizontal levels in trading» video course.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ18)

The market remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of September 17 – 18.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators began to buy and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday. The trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of September 20 – 26.

COT indicator decreased but didn’t reverse. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying the dollar, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday. The trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of September 20 – 27.

COT indicator increased but didn’t reverse. Large speculators are selling Euro and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday. The trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions (USDCHF) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of September 20 – 25.

COT indicator increases, large speculators are buying franc and the professionals’ opinion no longer corresponds to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

GBPUSD currency pair remains in the downtrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of September 25 – 27.

COT indicator increased but didn’t reverse. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling Pound and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

USDJPY currency pair remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions (USDJPY) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of September 6 – 10.

COT indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLX18)

The market remains in the uptrend. Another high was broken on the Daily timeframe last week and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of September 26 – 27.

COT net position indicator reversed. Large speculators began to buy oil. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CLX18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

USDCAD currency pair remains in the downtrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of September 27 – 28.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators began to buy the Canadian dollar and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday. The trend is bearish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of September 20 – 21.

COT indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling gold and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Gold (GCZ18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

COT indicator increases. At the same time, CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.

Silver (SIZ18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

COT net position indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling and hedgers are buying. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

USDRUB currency pair remains in the bear trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of September 10 – 12.

COT indicator decreases, large speculators are selling rouble and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction.

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are EURGBP, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and gold.

In the near future, EURUSD and WTI Crude Oil can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.