Financial markets weekly overview for March 12 – 16

2005

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We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Trade list for the current week

Asset	Comments	2. 03	9. 03
**E-Mini S&P500 (ESH18)	The market remains in the bear trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 26 - 27.
**Dollar Index (DXH18)	The market remains in the uptrend. Another correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 7 - 8.
*******EUR (E6H18)	Euro remains in the bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 7 - 8.
**CHF (S6H18)	USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend. Another resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 2 - 5.
*******GBP (B6H18)	British pound remains in the bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 6 - 8.
**JPY (J6H18)	USDJPY currency pair remains in the bear trend on the Daily timeframe and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. USDJPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 27 - 28.
**WTI (CLK18)	The medium-term trend remains upward. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 8 - 9.
**CAD (D6H18)	USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 23 - 27.
*******XAU (GCJ18)	The market is in the downtrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 6 - 8.
*******XAG (SIH18)	The silver market remains in the medium-term bear trend and the correction wave develops on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level, the highs of February 26 - 27. A pullback selling opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout buying opportunity will be formed.
**AUD (A6H18)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bullish now. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the price is above the support level, the lows of March 8 - 9.
**NZD (N6H18)	NZDUSD currency pair remains in the medium-term uptrend. Another resistance levels was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of March 8 - 9.
**RUB (R6H18)	USDRUB currency pair remains in the medium-term bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 7 - 9.

	The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****	Excellent
***	Good
**	Ordinary
*	Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
	The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
	large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
	large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
	the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
	the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

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E-Mini S&P500 (ESH18)

The market remains in the bear trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 26 – 27.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators began to buy and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESH18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The market remains in the uptrend. Another correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 7 – 8.

CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying dollar, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

Euro remains in the bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 7 – 8.

COT indicator decreased but didn’t reverse, large speculators go on buying Euro and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend. Another resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 2 – 5.

COT indicator increases, large speculators go on buying franc and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

British pound remains in the bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 6 – 8.

COT indicator decreases along with the market. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling Pound and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

USDJPY currency pair remains in the bear trend on the Daily timeframe and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. USDJPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of February 27 – 28.

COT indicator increases along with the market, large speculators are buying Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLK18)

The medium-term trend remains upward. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 8 – 9.

COT net position indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling oil. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CLK18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of February 23 – 27.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling the Canadian dollar and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The market is in the downtrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 6 – 8.

COT indicator increases. Large speculators are buying gold and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Gold (GCJ18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The silver market remains in the medium-term bear trend and the correction wave develops on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level, the highs of February 26 – 27. A pullback selling opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout buying opportunity will be formed.

COT indicator reversed. At the same time CFTC reports indicate that large speculators began to buy and hedgers are selling. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Silver (SIK18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bullish now. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the price is above the support level, the lows of March 8 – 9.

COT net position indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling, hedgers are buying. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

NZDUSD currency pair remains in the medium-term uptrend. Another resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Tuesday. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of March 8 – 9.

COT indicator increased but didn’t reverse. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture now and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

USDRUB currency pair remains in the medium-term bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 7 – 9.

COT indicator reversed and large speculators began to buy rouble and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are EURAUD, NZDUSD, dollar index.

In the near future USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.