Financial markets weekly overview for April 2 – 6

2229

The actual financial market overview based on CFTC:
COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for October 10 – 16.

To improve your trading system with the help of COT commission reports, watch the online course «Trading with professionals: CFTC reports for private traders».

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Trade list for the current week

Assets	Comments	23. 03	30. 03
**E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18)	The market remains in the bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 27 - 28.
**Dollar Index (DXH18)	The market remains in the bear trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 20 - 21.
*******EUR (E6H18)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is bullish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 20 - 21.
**CHF (S6H18)	USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formatiom on the Daily timeframe. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 26 - 28.
*******GBP (B6H18)	GBPUSD currency pair remains in the uptrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 16 - 19.
*******JPY (J6H18)	The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday, USDJPY trend is bullish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. USDJPY long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 23 - 26.
**WTI (CLK18)	The medium-term trend remains upward and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 13 - 15.
**CAD (D6H18)	USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 26 - 28.
**XAU (GCM18)	The market remains in the uptrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 20 - 21.
*XAG (SIK18)	The silver market remains in the medium-term bear trend and the impulse wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 26 - 27.
*AUD (A6H18)	The Australian Dollar remains in the medium-term bear trend. Another low was broken on the Daily timeframe last week. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 26 - 27.
*NZD (N6H18)	The market remains in the medium-term bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 26 - 28.
**RUB (R6H18)	USDRUB medium-term trend remains upward and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. USDRUB long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 22 - 26.

	The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****	Excellent
***	Good
**	Ordinary
*	Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
	The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
	large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
	large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
	the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
	the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

If you want to get more information on the pullback trading tactics and other aspects of trading in the market, watch the «Horizontal levels in trading» video course.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18)

The market remains in the bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 27 – 28.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators began to buy and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The market remains in the bear trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 20 – 21.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling dollar, hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is bullish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 20 – 21.

COT indicator increased but didn’t reverse. Large speculators are selling Euro and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formatiom on the Daily timeframe. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 26 – 28.

COT indicator reversed, large speculators began to sell franc and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

GBPUSD currency pair remains in the uptrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 16 – 19.

COT indicator increases along with the market. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying Pound and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday, USDJPY trend is bullish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. USDJPY long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 23 – 26.

COT indicator increases, large speculators are buying Yen and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLK18)

The medium-term trend remains upward and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after its completion. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 13 – 15.

COT net position indicator reversed. Large speculators began to buy oil. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CLK18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 26 – 28.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling the Canadian dollar and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The market remains in the uptrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 20 – 21.

COT indicator reversed. Large speculators began to buy gold and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.

Gold (GCM18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The silver market remains in the medium-term bear trend and the impulse wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 26 – 27.

COT indicator decreases along with the market. At the same time CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling and hedgers are buying. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.

Silver (SIK18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

The Australian Dollar remains in the medium-term bear trend. Another low was broken on the Daily timeframe last week. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 26 – 27.

COT net position indicator decreased but didn’t reverse. Large speculators are buying, hedgers are selling. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

The market remains in the medium-term bear trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the price is below the resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of March 26 – 28.

COT indicator decreased but didn’t reverse. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

USDRUB medium-term trend remains upward and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. USDRUB long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of March 22 – 26.

COT indicator reversed, large speculators are selling rouble and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are GBPUSD, EURUSD, Dollar Index.

In the near future USDJPY, XAUUSD, EURAUD can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.