Financial markets weekly overview for January 15 – 21

Financial markets weekly overview for January 15 – 21

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Key topics

Trade list for the current week

AssetComments5.
01
12.
01
**E-Mini
S&P500 (ESH18)
The trend is bullish, another impulse wave develops. New pullback buying opportunities will be formed after the correction formation. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of December 29 - January 2.
**Dollar Index (DXH18)American dollar remains in the bear trendе. The market is actively falling and a pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of January 9 - 10.
**EUR (E6H18)EURUSD currency pair broke through another resistance level on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the medium-term trend remains bullish and the impulse wave develops. A retracement may be formed soon and after it's completion a pullback buying opportunity may be formed.
**CHF (S6H18)USDCHF currency pair remains in the medium-term bear trend. The correction came to an end last week.
**GBP (B6H18)British pound broke through another resistance level on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the medium-term trend remains upward and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of January 10 - 11.
**JPY (J6H18)USDJPY currency pair broke through the support level on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation. USDJPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of January 8-9.
**WTI (CLG18)The oil market remains in the active uptrend and a pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation.
**CAD (D6H18)Canadian dollar continues to strengthen. At the same time USDCAD medium-term trend is bearish, another correction came to an end last week. USDCAD short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resisitance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of January 10-11.
**XAU (GCG18)The gold market remains in the uptrend, another resistance level on the Daily timeframe was broken on Friday and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of January 9 - 10.
**XAG (SIH18)The silver market is around the resistance level on the Daily timeframe. A pullback selling opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout buying opportunity will be formed.
**AUD (A6H18)Austrailian dollar remains in the bull trend, another maximum on the Daily timeframe was broken on Thursday. A pullback buying opportunity on the Daily timeframe will appear after the correction formation. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of January 9 - 10.
**NZD (N6H18)The trend is bullish, the impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of December 20.
**RUB
(R6H18)
USDRUB currency pair remains in the medium-term bear trend, the impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.
The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****Excellent
***Good
**Ordinary
*Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

Trade list in a graphical format is available here.

If you want to get more information on the pullback trading tactics and other aspects of trading in the market, watch the «Horizontal levels in trading» video course.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESH18)

The trend is bullish, another impulse wave develops. New pullback buying opportunities will be formed after the correction formation. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of December 29 – January 2.

COT net position indicator reversed, large speculators are selling and hedgers are selling. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESH18). Технический анализ и индикатор нетто-позиции СОТ.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESH18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Dollar Index (DXY)

American dollar remains in the bear trendе. The market is actively falling and a pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of January 9 – 10.

COT net position indicator decreases along with the market, CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are actively selling and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion correspond to the Daily trend direction.

Индекс доллара (DXY). Технический анализ и индикатор нетто-позиции СОТ.

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

EURUSD currency pair broke through another resistance level on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the medium-term trend remains bullish and the impulse wave develops. A retracement may be formed soon and after it’s completion a pullback buying opportunity may be formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of January 9-10.

COT net position increases, large speculators support the trend and hedgers are selling. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

EURUSD. Технический анализ и индикатор нетто-позиции СОТ.

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

USDCHF currency pair remains in the medium-term bear trend. The correction came to an end last week.

CFTC reports indicate that large speculators began to sell franc and hedgers began to buy. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

CHFUSD. Технический анализ и индикатор нетто-позиции СОТ.

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

British pound broke through another resistance level on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the medium-term trend remains upward and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of January 10 – 11.

CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying Pound and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

GBPUSD. Технический анализ и индикатор нетто-позиции СОТ.

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

USDJPY currency pair broke through the support level on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation. USDJPY short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of January 8-9.

CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on selling Yen and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

JPYUSD. Технический анализ и индикатор нетто-позиции СОТ.

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLG18)

The oil market remains in the active uptrend and a pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation.

COT net position indicator increases along with the market. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Нeфть WTI (CLG18). Технический анализ и индикатор нетто-позиции СОТ.

WTI Crude Oil (CLG18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

Canadian dollar continues to strengthen. At the same time USDCAD medium-term trend is bearish, another correction came to an end last week. USDCAD short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resisitance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of January 10-11.

CFTC reports indicate that net position of large speculators remained almost the same. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

CADUSD. Технический анализ и индикатор нетто-позиции СОТ.

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The gold market remains in the uptrend, another resistance level on the Daily timeframe was broken on Friday and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of January 9 – 10.

Large speculators go on buying and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.

Золото (GCG18). Технический анализ и индикатор нетто-позиции СОТ.

Gold (GCG18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The silver market is around the resistance level on the Daily timeframe. A pullback selling opportunity from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout buying opportunity will be formed.

Large speculators go on buying and hedgers are selling.

Серебро (SIH18). Технический анализ и индикатор нетто-позиции СОТ.

Silver (SIH18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator..

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

Austrailian dollar remains in the bull trend, another maximum on the Daily timeframe was broken on Thursday. A pullback buying opportunity on the Daily timeframe will appear after the correction formation. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of January 9 – 10.

COT net position indicator reversed. Large speculators are actively buying and hedgers are selling. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

AUDUSD. Технический анализ и индикатор нетто-позиции СОТ.

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator..

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

The trend is bullish, the impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the support level, the lows of December 20. CFTC reports indicate that professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

NZDUSD. Технический анализ и индикатор нетто-позиции СОТ.

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

USDRUB currency pair remains in the medium-term bear trend, the impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.

Net position indicator increases, large speculators go on buying Rouble and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion still corresponds to the market technical picture.

RUBUSD. Технический анализ и индикатор нетто-позиции СОТ.

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are AUDJPY, EURNZD, EURAUD, EURRUB.

In the near future AUDCHF, AUDCAD, NZDCHF, NZDCAD, GBPNZD can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.

More information on the topic:

Good luck in trading!

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