Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list for October 16 – 22

Торговый лист

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The table below provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we publish both values in the table.

Note that the arrow direction gives us information about the large speculators’ actions (buying or selling) relative to the asset specified in the first column. For example, for CHF, the up arrow () indicates that COT net position indicator is rising, namely CHF is being bought, but not USDCHF.

Key topics

Trade list for the current week

AssetComments06.
10
13.
10
**E-Mini
S&P500 (ESZ17)
The trend is bullish, the impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point will appear on the Daily timeframe after another correction formation, at the same time the price movement is very active that's why the reliable market entry is also possible on smaller timeframes.
***Dollar Index (DXZ17)The trend is bearish, the correction is forming, a pullback entry point will appear on the Daily timeframe after its completion.
***EUR (E6Z17)The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday, the trend is upward now, the correction develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. COT net position indicator goes on rising and large speculators continue to buy.
***CHF (S6Z17)The trend is bullish (for USDCHF), another correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear on the Daily timeframe after its completion. Large speculators are selling franc and the professionals' opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.
***GBP (B6Z17)The Daily trend is bearish. The market is in the strong correction. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after this price movement completion on the Daily timeframe.
***JPY (J6Z17)The trend is bullish (for USDJPY). The market is in the correction, a pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the lows of September 25-26.
**WTI (CLX17)The trend is bullish, another impulse wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after new correction formation.
***CAD (D6Z17)The trend is bullish (for USDCAD). The market is around the support level on the Daily timeframe. A pullback signal from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout signal will be formed. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading.
****XAU (GCZ17)The Daily trend is bearish, the market is in the correction. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the highs of September 25-26.
**XAG (SIZ17)The trend is bullish, the impulse wave develops, a pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. волна, точка входа на отбой появится после формирования коррекции на Daily.
**AUD (A6Z17)The trend is bullish, the impulse wave develops, a pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe.
****NZD (N6Z17)The trend is bearish, the market is in the correction, A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of September 28-29.
**RUB
(R6Z17)
The market broke through the triangle formed earlier in the direction that corresponds to professional participants ' opinion. The trend is bearish (for USDRUB), the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear on the Daily timeframe after the correction formation.
The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****Excellent
***Good
**Ordinary
*Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

Trade list in a graphical format is available here.

If you want to get more information on the pullback trading tactics and other aspects of trading in the market, watch the «Horizontal levels in trading» video course.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ17)

The trend is bullish, the impulse wave develops. A pullback entry point will appear on the Daily timeframe after another correction formation, at the same time the price movement is very active that’s why the reliable market entry is also possible on smaller timeframes. Large speculators began to buy actively and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture now.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis for October 16 — 22

E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ17). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday and the trend changed its direction. The trend is bearish, the correction is being formed, a pullback entry point will appear on the Daily timeframe after its completion. COT net position indicator didn’t reverse, the professionals’ opinion no longer corresponds to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis for October 16 — 22

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

EURO (EURUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Wednesday, the trend is upward now, the correction develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. COT net position indicator goes on rising and large speculators continue to buy.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis for October 16 — 22

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

The trend is bullish (for USDCHF), another correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear on the Daily timeframe after its completion. Large speculators are selling franc and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis for October 16 — 22

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

The Daily trend is bearish. The market is in the strong correction. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after this price movement completion on the Daily timeframe. COT net position indicator didn’t reverse. Major players‘ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis for October 16 — 22

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

The trend is bullish (for USDJPY). The market is in the correction, a pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the lows of September 25-26.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis for October 16 — 22

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLX17)

The trend is bullish, another impulse wave develops on the Daily timeframe. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after new correction formation. COT net position indicator reversed, large speculators began to sell and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis for October 16 — 22

WTI Crude Oil (CLX17). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

The trend is bullish (for USDCAD). The market is around the support level on the Daily timeframe. A pullback signal from this level will most likely appear within next week or it will be broken, the trend will change and a breakout signal will be formed. Anyway this asset may be interesting for medium-term trading. Large speculators are buying the Canadian dollar and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture, and it makes sense to reduce the position size when USDCAD currency pair buying opportunity appears.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis for October 16 — 22

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The Daily trend is bearish, the market is in the correction. Large speculators are selling, major players’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the highs of September 25-26.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis for October 16 — 22

Gold. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday. The trend changed its direction. The trend is bullish, the impulse wave develops, a pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Large speculators are selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture, and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis for October 16 — 22

Silver. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday and the trend changed its direction. The trend is bullish, the impulse wave develops, a pullback entry point will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Large speculators are selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture, and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis for October 16 — 22

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

The trend is bearish, the market is in the correction and a pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Major players’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the resistance level, the highs of September 28-29.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis for October 16 — 22

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

The market broke through the triangle formed earlier in the direction that corresponds to professional participants’ opinion. Large speculators go on buying RUB and the major players’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture. The trend is bearish (for USDRUB), the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear on the Daily timeframe after the correction formation.

Financial markets weekly overview. Trade list and COT CFTC reports analysis for October 16 — 22

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are gold, NZDUSD, EURJPY, EURAUD, NZDCHF and NZDCAD.

In the near future Dollar Index, EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, EURGBP, GBPJPY, GBPCHF, ADUJPY, NZDJPY can become noteworthy depending on the depth of the market correction.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.

More information on the topic:

Good luck in trading!

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