COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 – December 5

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 – December 5

The actual financial market overview based on CFTC:
Our weekly market overviews will be paused till January.

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We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to have the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Key topics

Trade list for the current week

AssetsComments22.
11
26.
11
**E-Mini
S&P500 (ESZ21)
The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 23 - 26.
***Dollar Index (DXZ21)The market remains in the bullish trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 17 - 19.
**EUR (E6Z21)EURUSD currency pair remains in the downtrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (EURUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 17 - 19.
***CHF (S6Z21)The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (USDCHF) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 24 - 26.
***GBP (B6Z21)GBPUSD currency pair remains in the downtrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (GBPUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 17 - 19.
***JPY (J6Z21)The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (USDJPY) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 23 - 26.
***WTI (CLF22)The market remains in the downtrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 22 - 26.
**CAD (D6Z21)The market remains in the bullish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (USDCAD) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 23 - 26.
**XAU (GCZ21)The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (USDJPY) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 17 - 19.
**XAG (SIZ21)The market remains in the downtrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 17 - 19.
**AUD (A6Z21)AUDUSD currency pair remains in the bearish trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (AUDUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 12 - 17.
**NZD (N6Z21)NZDUSD currency pair remains in the bearish trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (NZDUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 17 - 19.
**RUB
(R6Z21)
USDRUB currency pair remains in the bullish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (USDRUB) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 4 - 11.
The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****Excellent
***Good
**Ordinary
*Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

If you want to get more information on the pullback trading tactics and other aspects of trading in the market, watch the «Horizontal levels in trading» video course.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ21)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 23 – 26.

COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 - December 5

E-Mini S&P500 (ESZ21). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator

Dollar Index (DXY)

The market remains in the bullish trend and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 17 – 19.

COT indicator decreased but didn’t reverse. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying the dollar, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 - December 5

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

EURUSD currency pair remains in the downtrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (EURUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 17 – 19.

COT indicator decreased but didn’t reverse. Large speculators are buying Euro and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 - December 5

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (USDCHF) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 24 – 26.

COT indicator increases. Large speculators are buying franc and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 - December 5

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

GBPUSD currency pair remains in the downtrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (GBPUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 17 – 19.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling Pound and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 - December 5

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (USDJPY) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 23 – 26.

COT indicator increases. Large speculators are buying Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 - December 5

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLF22)

The market remains in the downtrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 22 – 26.

COT net position indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling oil. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 - December 5

WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

The market remains in the bullish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (USDCAD) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 23 – 26.

COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying the Canadian dollar and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 - December 5

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (USDJPY) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 17 – 19.

COT indicator increases. Large speculators are buying gold and the professionals’ opinion no longer corresponds to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 - December 5

Gold (GCZ21). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The market remains in the downtrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 17 – 19.

COT indicator increases. At the same time, CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 - December 5

Silver (SIZ21). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

AUDUSD currency pair remains in the bearish trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (AUDUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 12 – 17.

COT net position indicator increases. Large speculators are buying and hedgers are selling. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 - December 5

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

NZDUSD currency pair remains in the bearish trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (NZDUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of November 17 – 19.

COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 - December 5

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian Rouble (USDRUB)

USDRUB currency pair remains in the bullish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (USDRUB) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of November 4 – 11.

COT indicator increases. Large speculators are buying rouble and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for November 29 - December 5

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are USDCAD.

In the near future, Dollar Index, EURUSD and GBPUSD and can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.

More information on the topic:

Good luck in trading!

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