Financial markets weekly overview for April 30 – May 4

1981

The actual financial market overview based on CFTC:
COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for October 10 – 16.

To improve your trading system with the help of COT commission reports, watch the online course «Trading with professionals: CFTC reports for private traders».

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to know the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Trade list for the current week

Assets	Comments	20. 04	27. 04
**E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18)	The market remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was fomed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 24 - 26.
**Dollar Index (DXM18)	The market remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 16 - 18.
**EUR (E6M18)	The market remains in the downtrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 16 - 19.
**CHF (S6M18)	USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 16 - 17.
**GBP (B6M18)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 16 - 18.
**JPY (J6M18)	USDJPY currency pair remains in the uptrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 17 - 18.
**WTI (CLM18)	The medium-term trend remains upward and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 25 - 26.
**CAD (D6M18)	USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 16 - 18.
*******XAU (GCM18)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, the trend is bearish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after its completion. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 18 - 19.
*******XAG (SIN18)	The medium-term trend remains upward and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 12 - 16.
**AUD (A6M18)	The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 16 - 19.
**NZD (N6M18)	NZDUSD currency pair remains in the downtrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 13 - 17.
*******RUB (R6M18)	USDRUB medium-term trend remains upward. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. USDRUB long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 19 - 20.

	The notation that determines the quality of possible trades during the new week are profit potential, the risk-reward ratio, the opinion of major market players, other factors:
****	Excellent
***	Good
**	Ordinary
*	Uninteresting (sideways trends, etc.)
	The notation that determines the change in the opinion of large speculators, the direction of COT net position indicator in the reporting and prior periods are:
	large speculators are buying the asset specified in the first column
	large speculators are selling the asset specified in the first column
	the green color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction corresponds to the opinion of large speculators
	the blue color of the arrows means that the Daily trend direction doesn’t correspond to the opinion of large speculators

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E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18)

The market remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was fomed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 24 – 26.

COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESM18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The market remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 16 – 18.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators began to buy dollar, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

The market remains in the downtrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 16 – 19.

COT indicator reversed. Large speculators began to sell Euro and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. USDCHF long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 16 – 17.

COT indicator decreases, large speculators are selling franc and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Monday, the trend is bearish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 16 – 18.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators began to sell Pound and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

USDJPY currency pair remains in the uptrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 17 – 18.

COT indicator reversed, large speculators are selling Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLM18)

The medium-term trend remains upward and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 25 – 26.

COT net position indicator increases. Large speculators go on buying oil. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CLM18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

USDCAD medium-term trend remains upward and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 16 – 18.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators began to buy the Canadian dollar and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The support level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, the trend is bearish now and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after its completion. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 18 – 19.

COT indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling gold and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.

Gold (GCM18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

COT indicator increasses. At the same time CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the technical picture.

Silver (SIN18). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

COT net position indicator increased, but didn’t reverse. Large speculators are selling, hedgers are buying. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

NZDUSD currency pair remains in the downtrend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 13 – 17.

COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators go on buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian rouble (USDRUB)

USDRUB medium-term trend remains upward. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. USDRUB long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 19 – 20.

COT indicator decreases, large speculators are selling rouble and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are silver and USDRUB.

In the near future EURJPY and gold can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.