Technical Market Outlook: Key Levels and Scenarios (Sep 28 – Oct 4, 2026)

We review the most important levels for key financial instruments and the likely scenarios for future developments.

Key topics

• British Pound (GBPUSD)
• Swiss Franc (USDCHF)
• Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
• Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
• Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)
• Bitcoin (BTC)
• Ether (ETH)
• Apple Inc (AAPL)
• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)
• Tesla Inc (TSLA)
• Summary

British Pound (GBPUSD)

The bearish trend continues, a corrective wave is developing. The last broken level is support (1.3475 — 1.3483). The breakout occurred 9 candlesticks ago.

The intermediate target for the downward movement is the support level with boundaries at 1.3141 — 1.3164. In case of successful trend development, a further target will be at the support level with boundaries at 1.3038 — 1.3060.

The potential reward/risk ratio from current prices, when setting targets and fixing risks according to the daily timeframe levels, may be small (around 0.4:1). When using a further target, it is also insignificant (around 0.8:1). If the correction ends near the resistance level (1.3395 — 1.3400), the potential reward/risk ratio may be more than 2:1. For a further target, it would be approximately 4:1.

Short positions will remain relevant as long as the market stays below the nearest resistance level with boundaries at 1.3395 — 1.3400. If the market successfully consolidates above this nearest resistance, the trend will reverse to the opposite (bullish).

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

The bullish trend continues, an impulse wave is developing. The last broken level is resistance (0.8248 — 0.8262). The breakout occurred 2 candlesticks ago.

The intermediate target for the upward movement is the resistance level with boundaries at 0.8379 — 0.8400. In case of successful trend development, a further target will be at the resistance level of 0.8583.

If the next correction ends near the support level (0.8181 — 0.8207), the potential reward/risk ratio may be more than 2:1. When choosing a further target, it may be more than 5:1. If the correction ends near the last broken level (0.8248 — 0.8262), the potential reward/risk ratio may be insignificant (around 0.9:1).

Long positions will remain relevant as long as the market stays above the nearest support level with boundaries at 0.8181 — 0.8207. If the market successfully consolidates below this support, the trend will reverse to the opposite (bearish).

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

The bullish trend continues, a corrective wave is developing. The last broken level is resistance (154.49 — 155.00). The breakout occurred 9 candlesticks ago.

Upon the resumption of the upward movement, the first target will be the resistance level with boundaries at 158.84 — 159.03. In case of successful trend development, a further target will be at the resistance level with boundaries at 163.87 — 164.09.

The potential reward/risk ratio from current prices, when setting targets and fixing risks according to the daily timeframe levels, may be small (around 0.2:1). When choosing a further target, it is around 1:1. If the correction ends near the support level (152.38 — 153.57), the potential reward/risk ratio may be approximately 2.7:1. For a further target, it would be around 5.1:1. If the correction ends near the last broken level (154.49 — 155.00), the potential reward/risk ratio may be around 1:1.

Long positions will remain relevant as long as the market stays above the nearest daily timeframe support level with boundaries at 152.38 — 153.57. If the market successfully consolidates below this support, the trend will reverse to the opposite (bearish).

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

The bullish trend continues, an impulse wave is developing. The last broken level is resistance (1.3891 — 1.3939). The breakout occurred 8 candlesticks ago.

The intermediate target for the upward movement is the resistance level with boundaries at 1.4201 — 1.4226. In case of successful trend development, a further target will be at the resistance level with boundaries at 1.4388 — 1.4415.

If the next correction ends near the support level (1.3763 — 1.3783), the potential reward/risk ratio may be more than 5:1. When choosing a further target, it may be more than 7:1. If the correction ends near the last broken level (1.3891 — 1.3939), the potential reward/risk ratio may be approximately 1.3:1. For a further target, it would be around 2:1.

Long positions will remain relevant as long as the market stays above the nearest daily timeframe support level with boundaries at 1.3763 — 1.3783. If the market successfully consolidates below this support, the trend will reverse to the opposite (bearish).

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

The bearish trend continues, a corrective wave is developing. A sell entry point may form after the completion of the current correction. The last broken level is support (0.7076 — 0.7087). The breakout occurred 3 candlesticks ago.

Upon the resumption of the downward movement, the first target will be the support level with boundaries at 0.6984 — 0.7001. In case of successful trend development, a further target will be at the support level with boundaries at 0.6860 — 0.6886.

The potential reward/risk ratio from current prices, when setting targets and fixing risks according to the daily timeframe levels, may be small (around 0.2:1). When using a further target, it is also insignificant (approximately 0.8:1). If the next correction ends near the resistance level (0.7126 — 0.7140), the potential reward/risk ratio may be approximately 2:1. For a further target, it would be around 4:1. If the correction ends near the last broken level (0.7076 — 0.7087), the potential reward/risk ratio may be insignificant (around 0.7:1). When choosing a further target, it would be approximately 2:1.

Short positions will remain relevant as long as the market stays below the nearest daily timeframe resistance level with boundaries at 0.7126 — 0.7140. If the market successfully consolidates above this nearest resistance, the trend will reverse to the opposite (bullish).

Bitcoin (BTC)

The bullish trend continues, an impulse wave is developing. A buy entry point may form after the formation of a correction. The last broken level is resistance (78163 — 79569). The breakout occurred 9 candlesticks ago.

The intermediate target for the upward movement is the resistance level with boundaries at 86604 — 87364. In case of successful trend development, a further target will be at the resistance level with boundaries at 96931 — 97150.

The potential reward/risk ratio from current prices, when setting targets and fixing risks according to the daily timeframe levels, may be small (around 0.2:1). When using a further target, it is approximately 1:1. If the correction ends near the support level (74996 — 75612), the potential reward/risk ratio may be around 4:1. For a further target, it may be more than 7:1. If the correction ends near the last broken level (78163 — 79569), the potential reward/risk ratio may be around 1.2:1. When choosing a further target, it may be more than 2:1.

Long positions will remain relevant as long as the market stays above the nearest daily timeframe support level with boundaries at 74996 — 75612. If the market successfully consolidates below this support, the trend will reverse to the opposite (bearish).

Ether (ETH)

The bullish trend continues, the correction ended 3 candlesticks ago, an impulse wave is developing. The last broken level is resistance (2526 — 2663). The breakout occurred 6 candlesticks ago.

The intermediate target for the upward movement is the resistance level with boundaries at 2777 — 2805. In case of successful trend development, a further target will be at the resistance level with boundaries at 3022 — 3041.

The potential reward/risk ratio from current prices, when setting targets and fixing risks according to the daily timeframe levels, may be small (approximately 0.5:1). When choosing a further target, it is around 1.9:1.

Long positions will remain relevant as long as the market stays above the nearest support level with boundaries at 2629 — 2684. If the market successfully consolidates below this nearest support, the trend will reverse to the opposite (bearish).

Apple Inc (AAPL)

The bullish trend continues, the correction ended 7 candlesticks ago, an impulse wave is developing. The last broken level is resistance (328.31 — 330.81). The breakout occurred 11 candlesticks ago.

The intermediate target for the upward movement is the resistance level with boundaries at 341.08 — 345.34.

The potential reward/risk ratio from current prices, when setting targets and fixing risks according to the daily timeframe levels, is less than 0.1:1.

Long positions will remain relevant as long as the market stays above the nearest daily timeframe support level with boundaries at 328.35 — 330.14. If the market successfully consolidates below this support, the trend will reverse to the opposite (bearish).

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

The bearish trend continues, a corrective wave is developing. The last broken level is support (215.10 — 216.75). The breakout occurred 10 candlesticks ago.

The intermediate target for the downward movement is the support level with boundaries at 211.16 — 212.17. In case of successful trend development, a further target will be at the support level of 190.01.

If the next correction ends near the resistance level (228.87 — 229.98), the potential reward/risk ratio may be more than 2:1. When choosing a further target, it may be more than 6:1.

Short positions will remain relevant as long as the market stays below the nearest resistance level with boundaries at 228.87 — 229.98. If the market successfully consolidates above this nearest resistance, the trend will reverse to the opposite (bullish).

Tesla Inc (TSLA)

The bullish trend continues, a corrective wave is developing. The last broken level is resistance (365.44 — 369.21). The breakout occurred 5 candlesticks ago.

Upon the resumption of the upward movement, the first target will be the resistance level with boundaries at 380.12 — 386.70. In case of successful trend development, a further target will be at the resistance level with boundaries at 410.49 — 413.16.

The potential reward/risk ratio from current prices, when setting targets and fixing risks according to the daily timeframe levels, may be small (around 0.3:1). When using a further target, it is approximately 1.3:1. If the correction ends near the support level (354.05 — 356.58), the potential reward/risk ratio may be around 1.9:1. For a further target, it would be approximately 4.3:1. If the correction ends near the last broken level (365.44 — 369.21), the potential reward/risk ratio may be insignificant (approximately 0.5:1). When choosing a further target, it is around 1.7:1.

Long positions will remain relevant as long as the market stays above the nearest daily timeframe support level with boundaries at 354.05 — 356.58. If the market successfully consolidates below this support, the trend will reverse to the opposite (bearish).

Summary

From a medium-term trading perspective, the financial instruments with a correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and/or potentially the most promising reward-to-risk ratio can be identified as: AUDUSD. In the near future, depending on the depth of the market correction, the following may be worth attention: TSLA, EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD.

The remaining financial instruments on the trading watchlist may also be of interest, but the conditions for a rebound on the daily timeframe in these markets will likely not appear earlier than in a week.